Fidel Castro officially announced his resignation as leader of Cuba. Many people will see this as a great day in history. Others will feel like they lost their greatest leader. I have none of these feeling, I can't even explain what I truly feel about this announcement. I am unsure of the future of Cuba.
Until today, I have been thinking about what would happen in Cuba if Castro was to die. My first thoughts were of Yugoslavia in 1980. There was a strong leader in charge by the name of Josip Broz Tito. He ruled over the people of Yugoslavia with total control. The man added stability to the region, though I don't agree with his tactics. He was a great asset to the people of Yugoslavia, creating a social environment that allowed the people to prosper and live with stability. Again, I don't agree with his methods, only the results. He ruled in the manner that was necessary for the region he reigned over considering his constituents. He only completely failed his people once; he died.
I know Tito was not the type of leader I would accept, and I do not advocate on his behalf. But to help draw a parallel, I have to explain that Yugoslavia was STABLE during his rule. Once he died, instability crept into the area. My fear for Cuba was much the same. I was afraid Cube would dissolve in chaos once Castro died. Castro has relieved my fear slightly by stepping aside. But then again, who else can rule over Cuba? Is Cuba ready to become a democracy, or does the country need a strong leader to pull them by the nose?
I can not answer these questions, but I know what I feel and I am not comfortable with the possibilities. My greatest fear is that the country will crumble in violence and chaos. With Castro's decision, it is less likely a military solution will chose the next leader. But who is ready to take the reigns?
Castro's' brother is in his 70's, and could be no more than a temporary solution. If he was placed in power, he would have to spend his whole time as leader teaching the next prospective leader. I do not think Cuba will become a democracy, so there would be no constituent consultation (no input from the people of Cuba). The next leader will be chosen by the current leaders, so the most likely choice is Castro's brother, Raul Castro. But who will replace him? As far as I know, neither of the brothers has a child that can, or will take the reigns of Cuba.
So here my new fear for Cuba; Who will take over next decade when Cuba is searching for a new leader? Will they be ready for a democracy? Will the next ten years be spent training the next leader of the Cuba Communist party? The next ten years will be decided by Raul Castro. He will have to decide what direction Cuba will take in the decade of 2010-2020. As we watch the changes in Cuba take place, we must look at the intentions of the leadership. Will we see privatization, and minor governmental questions being opened to the constituents?
If the people are brought in to help decide the future of Cuba, they may become a democracy in the next 20 years (or longer). The issue is how shaky the democracy will be. If there is no interaction with the people of Cuba, then I pray the next 10 years are used wisely while the Communist party choses and trains the next leader of Cuba. I also pray the person they chose is a benevolent leader of his fragile people.
The only hope for democracy in Cuba is for a benevolent dictator to rule over Cuba, and introduce elections and decision making power to his people. If the next few leaders do not give the Cubans a taste of the democratic society, then a democracy is sure to fail. I don't know that Cuba is ready from a democracy now, and it might be a few decades before power can be returned to the people of Cuba.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
The "Castro" Effect
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2 comments:
Are you sure Cuba will not be a democracy? I thought I hear the president say this could be the time for Cuba to become a democracy.It would be great to see Cuba elect it's new leader. Like we do here.
I am going to assume you are of Cuban decent, and from the lineage of Cuban refugees. The way you phrased your comments, I have to assume you are talking from a “we the Cuban people” stand point.
That said I understand your desire for a democracy. First, we have to look at the people and the government within Cuba before we can speculate as to what type of Government would best serve the people of Cuba. Right now, the people are not in revolt, nor has there been any outcry (other than in Florida) for a regime change. Further, Castro is part of the communist party. The communist party will not give up control willingly. Unless there is a major collapse in the economics of Cuba (Unlikely) or the party becomes oppressive (not likely, but possible), there would be no reason for the Cuban nationals to look for a new type of government.
Effectively, the only time a democracy succeeds is when the people decide they want to change their government. What is going to drive the people to change their government? Cuba has not last a war, the economics are not terrible, and they are being treated well by their government. What would spark revolt? In my eyes, there is no reason to believe Cuba wants to change their government, nor does the government want to change. I remind you again, the Communist party will not willingly give up the reigns of power. If Raul was to make an attempt to open election in Cuba, there might be a revolt, but it would be the military revolting against the elections. Raul would surly be unseated (if not killed) and the communist would still rule in Cuba.
No, right now is not the time for democracy within Cuba in my eyes. I remind you that my thoughts and speculation are simply that. I do not purport to have a crystal ball that gives me the answers. My estimations are based on the facts at hand and the trends of the people. Sometimes I am dead on, sometimes I am dead wrong. This is only my opinion of Cuba. Therefore, you should not take my word for it, especially if you desire a different outcome.
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