Sunshine State?

Today is the Florida primary, and I did not want to speculate. If you know me, you know that's a lie. I have been hanging back on this one because I have not been able to research the climate in Florida. Today I will make a grave mistake; I will tell you my thoughts without fully researching the voters.

This is the first true closed republican primary. The true conservative should win with little effort, but that does not mean Mitt Romney is going to win. If Floridian Republicans are true conservatives, there is no question that they would vote for either Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson. As Fred has dropped out, that leaves Mitt Romney.

Rudy Giuliani has placed 80% of his chips on Florida, ignoring the early states. I have always thought this was a poor decision, but then again I am not part of his campaign staff, who cares what I think. Rudy might get a majority of the early voting, but I cannot see him doing any better than 3rd place.

My buddy John McCain has been driving the Double Talk Express up everyone's rear. I wish he would just drive it back to Congress. John is going to be a tough competitor in Florida, and I for the life of me do not know why. Why would republicans in a closed primary vote for a man whose record is as far skewed from the party? My hope is that Floridians open there eyes, and see what McCain really stands for. Remember something; HE PARTNERED WITH TED KENNEDY!!! Need I say more?

So if we follow the "typical" logic of a closed primary, the clear-cut winner is Mitt Romney, with John as a close second. Rudy will be third, but he will be so far behind that the diesel smoke from the Double Talk Express will have dissipated.

Republican flash response

Alright, my quick rundown while between debates:

Ron Paul

• Seemed clueless, and uninformed. Did not seems to know what he was talking about
• No good points, many areas where he avoided the question
  
• Tried to focus everything on the war, and made everything discussed about ending the war
  
• Paul can not lead a country on only the issue of the war. He was simply an annoyance
  

Mike Hukabee

• Childish attacks
  
• Took personal pop-shots
  
• Came across fairly strong on his issues
  
• Basically stayed on topic
  
• Seemed to give the other candidates more room to work, stayed out of the fray
  
• Decent standpoint well stated
  

Rudy Giuliani

• Quoted Romney
  
• Fairly gentlemanly (except the quips against Romney)
  
• Changed his statements during his statements
  
• Seemed to be advocating for Romney by stating Romney's points
  

Fred Thompson

• Stronger than I have seen him
  
• Poignant remarks
  
• Solid stand point
  
• Hit everyone except Romney with the issues (seemed to be on the same page as Romney except when he decided to attack Romney)
  
• Took no prisoners with his comments. Did not shy away from locking horns
  

John McCain

• Bitter and hateful
  
• Childish and spiteful
  
• Very vague in many instances
  
• Claimed he was not advocating amnesty (dishonest. He admitted he would let illegals stay)
  
• Fixated on Romney lying about him in "attack ads" (I checked the facts from Romney's ads. Romney ads are true)
  
• Struck me as the only politician on the stage. (everyone was more statesmen like)
• Turned me off. I now regret ever supporting him (2000)
  

Mitt Romney

• Gentlemanly
  
• No personal attacks
  
• Refused to retaliate when attacked personal
  
• Very strong and solid standpoints
  
• Consistent
  
• Seemed very presidential
• Solid positions

Overall

• The best debate format to date.
• The first 45 minutes were captivating
• Second half was also very informitive
  
• You can tell everyone is afraid of Mitt Romney by the personal attacks
• The childish comments toward Mitt we repugnant
  
• Mitt showed to be the most adult. He didn't stoop to the level of the other candidates. (attacks)
• The candidates all received ample time to talk
• Each candidate covered a great range of issues in great detail
  

Huckabee The Nominee

You know who I think was the real victor of the Republicans, and you know what I think is happening on the Democrats side. So this leaves us with some very simple facts to dissect on the Republican side. First is the Huckabee angle; what does this mean for Mike? Second is the Romney angle; how does this change Mitts chances in the primary? Third is how does this affect the other candidates? Well we know this means Huckabee gets 15 minutes of fame, but does it matter? Not really, but it give Huckabee the chance to hang around for an extra election or two. He has no chance of winning an election unless we become evangelical Christians. So I guess the question is who wants to convert? No takers? Alright, then lets write him off; he didn't win on the issues. He is only going to win in and around the Bible belt. I would be really surprised to see Huckabee win any other elections unless the Republican base are short sighted evangelicals who have not looked past the church doors for political information. This is not to say anything negative of you if you like Mike, but just to say you may not be looking at the big picture. First and foremost, who could he win against in a general election? Second, this is a republican primary and Huckabee is not ethical or a conservative. Republicans want conservatives.

What about Mitt? Well, he mopped the floor with the other candidates. The closest candidate to him was McCain with 13%. Romney won the election on the issues. Romney is now coming to New Hampshire where he is to face the other major candidate who made a blip on the Iowa map. McCain will not roll over in New Hampshire and may win next Tuesday. Does this mean Romney is dead? Could this be over before it even starts for Mitt Romney? Not even close. If McCain wins here in New Hampshire, Mitt has Michigan and South Carolina. Both states poll Romney with a favorable light. Romney will either gain the silver or the gold in New Hampshire before he receives a gold in Michigan and another gold or silver in South Carolina. Romney can win the Primary if he can stay in the top two or three for every election until "Super Tuesday." Iowa and New Hampshire will propel Romney to the top, even if McCain takes first here and Mike has Iowa. Romney just has to pull second.

So where are Thomson and Giuliani? Like I said before, Thompson landed with a thud. I think Thompson's campaign has been on life support for at least month now, and I think he is going to drop out after New Hampshire. I would be surprised to see him in South Carolina, but I do not intend to see him at "Super Tuesday." As far as Giuliani, it's hard to win if you do not show up. He is betting on the later states to crown him king. I hope others have enough good sense to see his true intentions. Rudy only cares about you if you are a major state. If he cares about you, he only cares that you see him how you like your candidate (in the style of Hillary). Does he have some real positions? Yes, he is a social liberal and a fiscal moderate. I pray Florida knows that Rudy wants to grant amnesty to all the illegal's soaking up space in their state. To the legal immigrants and children of legal immigrants how are voting, think about Rudy's "amnesty measures" when your time comes. The Caucus only affected Mitt and Mike; no other candidate mattered in Iowa.

If you learned one thing from Iowa, please know his:

Mitt Romney won.

This is Getting Interesting

The Iowa caucus has traditionally been an informal vote of about 10% of the voting population. This year was nothing different. About 10% showed up and "voted" for their candidate. We had Obama winning on the Democrats side, and Huckabee on the Republican. Both sides showed very clearly who the most viable candidate for both sides is. I know … how can Mike Huckabee be viable? I never said he was, only that the vote showed us who was viable. Now that I have teased you, let me swing our attention to the Democrats. If you want to read about the Republicans, read this post.

So Obama wins by a good margin, followed by Edwards, and Clinton as the caboose. This is a fitting order in my opinion. I think Clinton makes a good rear end, and I don't want her to think she can just glide in, take the vote and glide out. She is still going to be the nominee in my opinion, but I would like to see her work for it. Further, if she has to raise hell on the way to the nomination, the other Democrats are going to start digging into her past. This will make my job easier (picking her apart), and it also make an easier victory for the Republican candidate (not like they need it). If you expect me to take more pop-shots, please wait for another post. I try to reserve those so I can spread them out and not be too repetitive.

Edwards should be used to second. It seems to me he has been there before. Then again, he HAS been there before, and therefore he knows how to run for office. For Edwards to pull second place is about the same as saying he tripped on a stair. Do not count Edwards out because he is not a new kid on this block. You must watch Edwards, he learned from the best. I am not being hypocritical; I still stand by my other post. John Edwards appeals to a particular group within the Democratic voting population. Hillary is still the favorite.

Our buddy Obama is a wild stallion on the stage. No one knows quite how to handle him. Do you attack him, discredit him, or ignore him? He is the first viable "black" candidate offered in a primary election. Obama has staying power, but I don't think he can pull New Hampshire under his wing. Hillary seems to be the one speaking New Hampshire's liberal language. Obama is going to make this a close race, but I don't know if he can get over on Hillary.

Hillary VS Obama offers a new piece to the game board, one I had not thought about. If Obama take New Hampshire, Hillary might not fair too well in the primary. My assumption was Hillary would resonate with Iowa in the same fashion as she does here in the Granite State. I expected Hillary to get silver, maybe gold, and then plow though New Hampshire like a moose in the brush (New Hampshire reference). Now I am rethinking the ease of access for Hillary. South Carolina is a state that has a high ratio of minority voters. Right now, they are not voting for Obama because they do not think "white America" would vote for him. What happens if he wins New Hampshire and Iowa? Both states are 95% "white," doesn't this prove that Obama can win the white vote? Will this sway the South Carolina voters? Many questions, few answers. Here are my thoughts; Even if Obama takes the first two elections, then takes South Carolina, he can not win. Hillary is the "Hollywood candidate" who will sweep New York, Massachusetts, and the entire "Left Coast." Obama is going to get a HUGE bounce, but it will not rocket him into the general election.

Obama is going to make this one interesting, and Edwards is going to be a thorn in the side. When the dust settles, Hillary will be the only MAN standing.