Last night was the Iowa caucus and the first win for Mitt Romney. By now you have seen the headlines, and you know it was a good night for Obama and Huckabee, but the raw numbers only show half of the story. The missing part is the true story of last night’s caucus; Mitt wins, and Huckabee losses. Yes, Huckabee did lose. Oh, you didn’t know the entry survey stated 60% of those voting in the Republican caucus were evangelical Christians? Well, knowing this changes the true reflection of the results of Iowa’s straw polls. Think about it this way; evangelical Christians are biased. FACT: They feel more comfortable with a Baptist Minister than a Mormon. Out of the evangelicals, Mike was able to pull ONLY 56.6% of the vote. This is a deadlocked crowd, and he only pulled 56.6%? This doesn’t look good for Mike, and I think this is the beginning of the end. I know he won, and I understand he was at 34%, but he only got 56.6% of the possible guaranteed votes. You can not win the nomination if you can only grab a small majority of your minority vote. Mitt Romney was only looking at 40% of the voters as viable. Mitt pulled 25% for the total vote, or 62.2% of the viable vote. This may seem like an unusual way to evaluate the vote, but it is quite a bit more accurate when you look at the demographics of the voting populace. Can religion make a difference in a presidential race? Sadly, yes, it can, and Mitt Romney is not the first candidate to face such a problem. Romney may have fewer votes than Huckabee, but he had more votes than any of the real candidates.
Friday, January 4, 2008
VICTORY!!!
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2 comments:
Nicely put, Myke. The fact is, most states aren't like Iowa, although a few are. When you compare Romney's expected demographic share to the one he actually takes in, he's certainly ahead of the game.
I personally am a little disappointed by people who will vote for someone based solely on their religion... especially when you consider that Baptists and Mormons are both Christians.
Don't actual qualifications and voting records matter more?
True enough, my friend. The only flaw to the logic in your last statements is this; There have always been those who believe the issues are encompassed fully by one qualification. Typically we find that those people are the evangelicals and the secular progressives. Funny how both extreams vote with blinders on...
As to your other point about Mormons bing Christians. You are correct, again, but this has to do with a fear factor. Those who have not researched the views of others tend to be ignorant of such facts or misinformed as to what the "real" facts are. Some people in Iowa actually believe Mormons are polygamists. They never got the memo...
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