Republican Frontrunner

In every sport I know (except for golf), the idea is to gain more points than the opposition. The primary is not much different. So what is the goal when running in the primary? Obviously to gain more delegates than the other candidates. If this is true, then why has the media been so hard on Mitt Romney? Before Michigan, Mitt had more delegates than anyone else, 30 to be exact. In any sport, you are defiantly in the game if you are ahead, but the primary is a different animal. Even if you are in the front, you must have a strong showing in the next "quarter" of the game to stay in the lead. I know, the same is true in sports, but the difference is that a mistake that cost you points in politics can make you lose point in the next "inning."

I had few doubts about Mitt running in Michigan, but my concern was for South Carolina. I am not as worried about S.C. as I was yesterday because Michigan may have given Mitt a bit of a bounce. If Mike Huckabee can get a bounce (a liberal Republican who appeals mostly to fringe voters), there is no question Mitt will get a bit of a bounce with his 9 point win. I feel confident in predicting a first or second place in S.C., but I am not sure I want to make a full prediction yet.

I don't mind being wrong (once in a while), but this time I was mostly ecstatic about my incorrect projection. I though Mitt would be at 35%, but instead he pulled out 39% of the vote. This is a great time to be wrong as well as being right. McCain pulled 30%, 2% lower than I projected. The only projection adoration I am upset with is Mike huckabee, who pulled 16%. Can't win them all. So what do all these percents mean? Let me make two small lists:

_________Delegates Before Michigan . . . . Delegates After Michigan

Mitt Romney .........................30 ..................42

Mike Huckabee .....................21 ..................21

John McCain ..........................10 ..................19

Others ......................................9 ..................9

Check it out for yourself.

So right now, Mitt is winning 2-1 over his closest rival. S.C. has 24 delegates, and split between whoever wins, Mitt will continue to lead the delegate race. Florida is the first "winner takes all" competition, and Mitt will still be ahead of the curve. Giuliani is hoping to pull into first after Florida, but with 57 delegates, Rudy is praying Mitt gets less than 15 Delegates. This is highly plausible for Rudy, but at this point it is almost "do or die" for Rudy. If Rudy has less than 20 delegates going into Super Tuesday, his campaign might be over before it even starts.

From here, I will not predict until I get a better feel for the environment in S.C. as I need a few days to feel the ground in S.C.

For now, the front runner is Mitt Romney.