After I posted yesterday, I spent hours looking at the voters of Florida trying to see if my thoughts would be remotely close. As you can see, I assumed that a closed primary would bring out the true conservative voters and a close Romney win. I was wrong. Late in the afternoon, I found there was a large sector of moderate republicans as well as other anomalies I was unaware of. I was not joking when I said I was reluctant.
So here’s the run down; I am 100% wrong about Mitt taking Florida (I wish I had researched the demographics before yesterday). I was wrong about Rudy winning the nomination (I think he is going to support McCain in the next 24 hours). The icing on the cake is that I might be wrong about Hillary as well; Hillary might not be the nominee (strange to hear after she won, huh?). So this is what I think; Mitt Romney must finish strong on Super Tuesday, otherwise we may end up with McCain as the nominee. I still feel Hillary is the Democrats nominee, but there is a 45% chance that Barack Obama might surpass her (three weeks ago, I though Obama had about a 20% chance).
So if we look at what I missed on the Republican side, you can see how little I was paying attention over the past week. I did not consider Cubans or the “good ‘ol boy” mentality of all the veterans in Florida. I also did not count on there being such a large number of moderate Republicans. If I had done my homework, I would have known John McCain was going to win this one by about the same margin as he won New Hampshire. Though I wonder why, in an area where illegal immigration, taxes, and the economy were key factors, Mitt Romney did not do a bit better. Obviously Floridians did not do their homework either (Just look at the videos on the right side of the page).
I respect John McCain and enjoyed the conversations I have had with him. He seems to generally like me also. We do not agree this time around, too much (of John) has changed in the past eight years. I understand it is John’s “turn,” but he is not the type of leader I want for my country. McCain has become more liberal as he has aged. It seems the older he gets, the less he remembers what it means to be a conservative. I take offense to John stating he is a conservative in his victory speech, this was another McCain lie. To be honest, I would rather Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, or even Rudy Giuliani over John McCain, each one is more conservative. There are only two Republican candidates I dislike more than John McCain; Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul.
One the Democrat side, I feel Barack is starting to chip away at Hillary’s commanding lead. From what I have seen in voting trends, it looks like Hillary’s numbers may be slipping. I don’t think it will be enough to steal the nomination from her, but Obama picked up an endorsement from Ted Kennedy, and John Kerry. Now we just need Al gore and Howard Dean to back up Barack to solidify my feelings
So with my new found knowledge, where do I think these races are going? This is going to be a two man race on both sides (no I will not correct this because Hillary is one of those “men”). The new course of these elections is as follows:
Edwards won’t be an annoyance going toward Super Tuesday; he will drop out at about the same time as Rudy Giuliani. From here it will be a great fight between Obama and Clinton. In the end, I think it will be Clinton.
On the Republican side, I hope Thompson throws his support behind Mitt Romney.
Rudy is going to drop out in the next 72 hours and throw his support behind John McCain.
Ron Paul is an idiot and will continue to be an idiot (sorry, I have limited patients for this guy) so I will try not to waste anymore time on him.
Mike Huckabee is going to be the Edwards of the Republicans and soak up valuable time and vote until he figures out that he has lost (Super Tuesday).
With Romney and McCain left to duke it out, I hope and pray that a true conservative wins the nomination. If we put McCain up against a Democrat, we have no one to vote for. When there is no conservative on the stage, we are left with only liberals. I weep for the Republicans if this happens.
Lord, give us Mitt Romney as the next President of the United States.
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