NH prediction

Barack steals it in Iowa, and sets up the Democrats for “change,” and Mike Huckabee comes out of no where and tears it up. So where does that leave us in New Hampshire? Does Barack get a bounce here, and will it help him going into South Carolina? What about Mike Fluke-abee? What bounce will he get from winning the Iowa caucus? How is all of this going to affect New Hampshire? Simple, it won’t.

Every pundit has been talking about the polls and the bounce from Iowa. I have heard, “Barack is up 7 points!” or some other ridiculous fake number. Yeah the pollsters have been calling, and yeah I have taken the surveys. In one survey, I was asked if I would vote for an African-American candidate. Well, yeah I would. I don’t care about their skin color, I care about their positions. Now if they had asked me if I would vote for Barack Obama, I would have said no. I will not vote for Barack because I do not agree with his position, not because he is black. I think most people are intelligent enough to know that a person’s position is what makes the candidate viable. Skin color, lineage, sex, and religion are irrelevant when deciding who is best suited to run our country. I really think the pollsters are basing the Barack Boom on responses from intelligent people who vote on issues and positions, not cursory items such as “skin color.”

As far as Mike Huckabee, he will not get any major bounce from Iowa. I think he might scrape together 10% of the vote, but that’s only 2% more then I have been predicting. Mike will be off the map the day after Super Tuesday. I think his win lets him hang around until Super Tuesday and steal votes from the “real” candidates. Mike is not going to win the nominations, and he is barely going to surpass Ron Paul in New Hampshire.

Ok, my predictions for New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton and John McCain are your winners. Hillary is going to win by about 4% and McCain will win by about 7%. Everyone has been telling me I am nuts, but I will not change my opinion. I think I may eat my words on the Democrats side, but there is no question New Hampshire thinks it is McCain’s turn.

For the republicans final count, Mitt Romney is going to pull the conservative vote (30%), McCain is going to pull the independent vote (36%). As for the Democrats, Hillary is going to pull the liberal vote (40%), and Barack is going to get the independents vote (36%). You will see the results will reflect this on Tuesday.

Simply put, New Hampshire is all about old school politics on the republican side. On the Democrats side, Hillary will have more appeal because people think they know her. She has been around (and around, and around) the block, so she can be” trusted.” Yeah, good luck with that my liberal friends.